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项目管理
12
engines
PERT 三点估算
PERT Three-Point Estimate
TE=(O+4M+P)/6 · σ=(P−O)/6 · O悲差越大σ越大 · ±σ置信带
Project management · PMP schedule estimating
挣值管理 EVM
Earned Value Management
CV=EV−AC/SV=EV−PV · CPI=EV/AC/SPI=EV/PV · <1超支/滞后
Project management · PMP performance metrics
完工估算 EAC 预测
EAC Forecast Estimate
EAC=BAC/CPI · ETC=EAC−AC · VAC=BAC−EAC · CPI<1注定超支
Project management · PMP completion forecasting
项目赶工:成本斜率优先
Project Crashing: Slope-First
成本斜率=(赶−正常成本)/(正常−赶工期) · 贪心先压最低斜率
Project management · time–cost tradeoff
甘特图浮动时差
Gantt Float & Slack
总时差TF=LS−ES=LF−EF · TF=0即关键(红) · 虚线时差尾
Project management · CPM
资源均衡直方图
Resource Leveling Histogram
每日需求直方图 · 右移浮动削峰不超上限 · 总工作量守恒
Project management · resource leveling
WBS 自底向上估算
WBS Bottom-Up Estimate
WBS叶子effort/cost · 父=子之和 · 加应急% · 44000·1.1=48400
Project management · work breakdown structure
风险概率×影响矩阵
Risk Probability × Impact Matrix
风险分=概率×影响 · 5×5热矩阵 · P5×I5=25极高/P1×I1=1低
Project management · risk assessment
敏捷燃尽图与团队速度
Agile Burndown & Velocity
理想线性燃尽vs实际 · 速率=完成点/冲刺 · 预测完工日/遗留
Project management · agile Scrum
计划价值 S 曲线(成本基线)
Planned Value S-curve (Cost Baseline)
累计计划价值PV/BCWS成S形升至BAC · 到期完成% · 剩余预算
Project Management · BCWS / earned-value baseline
应急储备与 EMV(预期货币价值)
Contingency Reserve & EMV
EMV=概率×影响 · 威胁下行/机会上行 · 总储备=Σ威胁EMV
Project Risk Management · Expected Monetary Value
进度压缩:快速跟进(Fast-tracking)
Schedule Compression: Fast-tracking
顺序活动并行搭接压工期 · 返工风险随搭接%升 · 25%→36天
Project Schedule Management · overlap vs rework risk